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2030 Global Marine Fuel Development Trend
Source:China Ship Inspection
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Author:China Shipping Net
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Published time: 2021-05-17
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1499 Views
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he hustle and bustle of the world is all for profit. The power of "profit" opened the era of ship transportation. When the "Coal Age" withdrew from the stage of history, marine fuel oil began to play an important role and promoted the heyday of ship transportation. Especially in recent years, the market situation is not good, all kinds of new ships and large ships are emerging in an endless stream, labor costs are increasing, and freight costs are increasing. Continued to decline, fuel costs have become the key to shipowners’ profitability. So, what role will fuel play in the global shipping trade in the future?
The hustle and bustle of the world is all for profit. The power of "profit" opened the era of ship transportation. When the "Coal Age" withdrew from the stage of history, marine fuel oil began to play an important role and promoted the heyday of ship transportation. Especially in recent years, the market situation is not good, all kinds of new ships and large ships are emerging in an endless stream, labor costs are increasing, and freight costs are increasing. Continued to decline, fuel costs have become the key to shipowners’ profitability. So, what role will fuel play in the global shipping trade in the future?
2030 global marine fuel development trends change and remain unchanged
The ancients used "moon halo and wind, foundation moist and rain" to metaphorically predict the development direction of things through certain signs. Foreseeing the future is to better adapt and control the future and improve the ability to adapt to changes. The same is true for the shipping industry. As an important part of the shipping industry’s operations, the prediction of future fuel development is naturally indispensable. As Tom Boardley, director of global shipping business at Lloyd’s Register (LR) said, the shipping industry is experiencing In order to properly manage the increasing operating costs of "today" and achieve the cost-effectiveness of meeting environmental requirements, ship operators are required to make correct predictions of "tomorrow". Undoubtedly, fuel is one of the most critical elements of market operations at this stage, and fuel cost control will directly affect profitability. Various agencies around the world also conduct forecasts and analyses of global energy in different time periods such as the next 10 years and 20 years. Among them, Lowe's also issued the "2030 Global Marine Fuel Development Trend" for the shipping industry. So, what is the basis of this report's forecast, and what analysis method is used?
First of all, the entire analysis and forecast is based on the four major ship types: container ships, bulk carriers, general cargo ships and oil tankers. Why choose these four ship types? The report pointed out that the fuel consumption of the four major ship types accounted for about 70% of the total fuel consumption of the global shipping industry.
At the same time, the analysis and forecast also made three assumptions for the management and control of the shipping industry in 2030: one is that all external control conditions are basically unchanged, which is called the status quo scenario (Status Quo); the other is that the scope of control is all over the world, which is called the global The global common scenario (Global Common); the third is that the world "does its own business" in terms of management and control, and each country has its own control rules, which is called the competitive nations scenario. These three scenarios represent the different development scenarios that the world shipping industry may appear in 2030, and may gradually become more globalized or more localized from the current commercialization.
Based on the above-mentioned ship types and assumptions, the report assessed the development potential of a variety of available fuels, including traditional fuels and alternative fuels. Traditional fuels refer to marine fossil fuels. The representative fuels are marine distilled oil (marine diesel and marine gasoline) and residual oil of different components, heavy fuel oil and low-sulfur heavy oil. Alternative energy refers to liquefied natural gas, methanol and hydrogen energy, biological alternatives, etc.
The study concluded that future fuels must have four characteristics: first, they must be available for use by ships; second, they must have sufficiently good cost-effectiveness; third, they must have the ability to compete with existing and upcoming energy technologies. Sufficient competitiveness; fourth, it must be able to meet current and future environmental protection requirements.
Then, under the three different scenarios, what are the different characteristics of the future prospects of different fuels?
Three patterns
First of all, under the model of maintaining the status quo, assuming no major changes in trade, steady economic growth, no rapid control changes, shipping will develop, but to a limited extent. If it is assumed that the 0.5% low-sulfur oil limit will still be implemented in 2025, then heavy fuel oil will still account for more than half of the total fuel share by 2030.
For most fleets, especially in the oil operation industry, heavy fuel oil is still considered the most cost-effective option. There will be a considerable proportion of the fleet, mainly old ships, relying on marine diesel and marine gasoline to meet ECA requirements. This may not be the best choice, but for some ships, this is still the only achievable technology option. From 2020 to 2025, the proportion of low-sulfur heavy oil used will increase, and in 2030, the proportion of alternative fuels will have a major change.
LNG applications will gradually increase, firstly for chemical tankers and product tankers, followed by bulk carriers and general cargo ships. In 2030, chemical tankers and product tankers will account for 30% of the total. Due to fuel prices and storage costs, LNG will be more suitable for small ships. Although some container ships will be equipped with LNG storage tanks, the proportion of them in the entire fleet is very small.
Under the “global shared” scenario, we assume that there is a uniform requirement for the sulfur content of fuels worldwide. Based on this rule, it is also the main reason for the continuous use of heavy oil fuels. Different from maintaining the status quo mode, due to the price of low-sulfur heavy oil, the proportion of high- and low-sulfur heavy oil used will not be too large. On the contrary, more investment will be added to technologies such as scrubber equipment.
Policies on carbon emissions will be more stringent, and the use of hydrogen energy will increase. In 2030, it will account for 9% of non-traditional fuels, and it will increase significantly in 2050, and it will occupy a larger share of all ship-type fuels. The replacement of traditional fuels by LNG and hydrogen energy will first appear in bulk carriers, chemical tankers and product tankers. In other words, under the “global shared” scenario, a significant increase in international trade may promote the use of LNG and hydrogen fuel.
Under the "national competition" model, the report gives the smallest share of LNG applications, while for traditional heavy oil, the report gives 60% of the data. Compared with the "maintain status quo" model, starting from 2025, marine diesel and marine gasoline will account for a smaller share. Due to the characteristics of their respective control regulations, the uncertainty of control and the ever-increasing barriers, a strong protectionist color has been added. The application of LNG is not very clear. Under the "national competition" model, stable control rules and attractive prices are required, so traditional heavy oil has an advantage in price.
Compared with the previous two scenarios, the application of LNG on chemical tankers and product tankers will have a strong growth, and by 2030, the share will reach 15%. Similar trends will appear in other ship types, but in the tanker industry, the application share of traditional heavy oil is very large. This shows that the promotion of the market share of non-traditional fuels comes from traditional fuel oil prices and emission legislation, rather than independent predictions of commodity growth and related transportation demand. In general, although the market share of heavy oil has decreased, the total amount of use is still increasing, not decreasing. In 2030, the demand for heavy oil will increase by 23% compared to 2010, which will not have a positive impact on the control of ships’ greenhouse gas emissions.
New energy alternative
According to the forecast of "2030 Global Marine Fuel Development Trend", nearly half or two-thirds of oil tankers, bulk carriers and container ships will continue to use heavy fuel oil before 2030, and as LR environmental consultant Dimitris Argyros said, from relying on heavy fuel oil to The use of alternative fuels will be a long transition process.
What is the basis for this conclusion? We can see the leopard from two aspects. First, from the perspective of the utilization rate of heavy fuel oil, the research report believes that the utilization rate of heavy fuel oil is still high before 2030, accounting for about 47% of the market share in the “maintaining the status quo” scenario, and in the “global shared” scenario , Accounting for about 58% of the share, in the "national competition" scenario, accounting for about 66% of the share; second, from the perspective of the use of alternative fuels by various ship types, chemical tankers and product tankers may become the earliest ship types to use LNG fuel. In the “maintain status quo” scenario, LNG accounts for approximately 31% of the total fuel consumption of the ship type. However, in terms of other ship types, the development prospect of 11% of LNG used once was not realized in 2010. The "2030 Global Marine Fuel Development Trend" believes that in 2030, global ship energy consumption is expected to double, among which new fuels will grow faster than heavy oil.
In general, it will still take many years for new marine fuels to replace existing heavy fuel oils, and it will not be feasible to completely subvert the existing marine fuel composition in the next 16 years. LR said that before 2030, heavy fuels will still be marine fuels. An important part of. Therefore, the proportion of heavy oil used in the future may not necessarily be reduced, nor is it good for a reduction.
2030 global marine fuel development trends change and remain unchanged
The ancients used "moon halo and wind, foundation moist and rain" to metaphorically predict the development direction of things through certain signs. Foreseeing the future is to better adapt and control the future and improve the ability to adapt to changes. The same is true for the shipping industry. As an important part of the shipping industry’s operations, the prediction of future fuel development is naturally indispensable. As Tom Boardley, director of global shipping business at Lloyd’s Register (LR) said, the shipping industry is experiencing In order to properly manage the increasing operating costs of "today" and achieve the cost-effectiveness of meeting environmental requirements, ship operators are required to make correct predictions of "tomorrow". Undoubtedly, fuel is one of the most critical elements of market operations at this stage, and fuel cost control will directly affect profitability. Various agencies around the world also conduct forecasts and analyses of global energy in different time periods such as the next 10 years and 20 years. Among them, Lowe's also issued the "2030 Global Marine Fuel Development Trend" for the shipping industry. So, what is the basis of this report's forecast, and what analysis method is used?
First of all, the entire analysis and forecast is based on the four major ship types: container ships, bulk carriers, general cargo ships and oil tankers. Why choose these four ship types? The report pointed out that the fuel consumption of the four major ship types accounted for about 70% of the total fuel consumption of the global shipping industry.
At the same time, the analysis and forecast also made three assumptions for the management and control of the shipping industry in 2030: one is that all external control conditions are basically unchanged, which is called the status quo scenario (Status Quo); the other is that the scope of control is all over the world, which is called the global The global common scenario (Global Common); the third is that the world "does its own business" in terms of management and control, and each country has its own control rules, which is called the competitive nations scenario. These three scenarios represent the different development scenarios that the world shipping industry may appear in 2030, and may gradually become more globalized or more localized from the current commercialization.
Based on the above-mentioned ship types and assumptions, the report assessed the development potential of a variety of available fuels, including traditional fuels and alternative fuels. Traditional fuels refer to marine fossil fuels. The representative fuels are marine distilled oil (marine diesel and marine gasoline) and residual oil of different components, heavy fuel oil and low-sulfur heavy oil. Alternative energy refers to liquefied natural gas, methanol and hydrogen energy, biological alternatives, etc.
The study concluded that future fuels must have four characteristics: first, they must be available for use by ships; second, they must have sufficiently good cost-effectiveness; third, they must have the ability to compete with existing and upcoming energy technologies. Sufficient competitiveness; fourth, it must be able to meet current and future environmental protection requirements.
Then, under the three different scenarios, what are the different characteristics of the future prospects of different fuels?
Three patterns
First of all, under the model of maintaining the status quo, assuming no major changes in trade, steady economic growth, no rapid control changes, shipping will develop, but to a limited extent. If it is assumed that the 0.5% low-sulfur oil limit will still be implemented in 2025, then heavy fuel oil will still account for more than half of the total fuel share by 2030.
For most fleets, especially in the oil operation industry, heavy fuel oil is still considered the most cost-effective option. There will be a considerable proportion of the fleet, mainly old ships, relying on marine diesel and marine gasoline to meet ECA requirements. This may not be the best choice, but for some ships, this is still the only achievable technology option. From 2020 to 2025, the proportion of low-sulfur heavy oil used will increase, and in 2030, the proportion of alternative fuels will have a major change.
LNG applications will gradually increase, firstly for chemical tankers and product tankers, followed by bulk carriers and general cargo ships. In 2030, chemical tankers and product tankers will account for 30% of the total. Due to fuel prices and storage costs, LNG will be more suitable for small ships. Although some container ships will be equipped with LNG storage tanks, the proportion of them in the entire fleet is very small.
Under the “global shared” scenario, we assume that there is a uniform requirement for the sulfur content of fuels worldwide. Based on this rule, it is also the main reason for the continuous use of heavy oil fuels. Different from maintaining the status quo mode, due to the price of low-sulfur heavy oil, the proportion of high- and low-sulfur heavy oil used will not be too large. On the contrary, more investment will be added to technologies such as scrubber equipment.
Policies on carbon emissions will be more stringent, and the use of hydrogen energy will increase. In 2030, it will account for 9% of non-traditional fuels, and it will increase significantly in 2050, and it will occupy a larger share of all ship-type fuels. The replacement of traditional fuels by LNG and hydrogen energy will first appear in bulk carriers, chemical tankers and product tankers. In other words, under the “global shared” scenario, a significant increase in international trade may promote the use of LNG and hydrogen fuel.
Under the "national competition" model, the report gives the smallest share of LNG applications, while for traditional heavy oil, the report gives 60% of the data. Compared with the "maintain status quo" model, starting from 2025, marine diesel and marine gasoline will account for a smaller share. Due to the characteristics of their respective control regulations, the uncertainty of control and the ever-increasing barriers, a strong protectionist color has been added. The application of LNG is not very clear. Under the "national competition" model, stable control rules and attractive prices are required, so traditional heavy oil has an advantage in price.
Compared with the previous two scenarios, the application of LNG on chemical tankers and product tankers will have a strong growth, and by 2030, the share will reach 15%. Similar trends will appear in other ship types, but in the tanker industry, the application share of traditional heavy oil is very large. This shows that the promotion of the market share of non-traditional fuels comes from traditional fuel oil prices and emission legislation, rather than independent predictions of commodity growth and related transportation demand. In general, although the market share of heavy oil has decreased, the total amount of use is still increasing, not decreasing. In 2030, the demand for heavy oil will increase by 23% compared to 2010, which will not have a positive impact on the control of ships’ greenhouse gas emissions.
New energy alternative
According to the forecast of "2030 Global Marine Fuel Development Trend", nearly half or two-thirds of oil tankers, bulk carriers and container ships will continue to use heavy fuel oil before 2030, and as LR environmental consultant Dimitris Argyros said, from relying on heavy fuel oil to The use of alternative fuels will be a long transition process.
What is the basis for this conclusion? We can see the leopard from two aspects. First, from the perspective of the utilization rate of heavy fuel oil, the research report believes that the utilization rate of heavy fuel oil is still high before 2030, accounting for about 47% of the market share in the “maintaining the status quo” scenario, and in the “global shared” scenario , Accounting for about 58% of the share, in the "national competition" scenario, accounting for about 66% of the share; second, from the perspective of the use of alternative fuels by various ship types, chemical tankers and product tankers may become the earliest ship types to use LNG fuel. In the “maintain status quo” scenario, LNG accounts for approximately 31% of the total fuel consumption of the ship type. However, in terms of other ship types, the development prospect of 11% of LNG used once was not realized in 2010. The "2030 Global Marine Fuel Development Trend" believes that in 2030, global ship energy consumption is expected to double, among which new fuels will grow faster than heavy oil.
In general, it will still take many years for new marine fuels to replace existing heavy fuel oils, and it will not be feasible to completely subvert the existing marine fuel composition in the next 16 years. LR said that before 2030, heavy fuels will still be marine fuels. An important part of. Therefore, the proportion of heavy oil used in the future may not necessarily be reduced, nor is it good for a reduction.
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